With Week 7 of the 2025 NFL regular season now in the books, it’s time to peer into the future and examine the projected first-round draft order for all 32 teams in the 2026 NFL Draft. These projections are based on ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), a sophisticated model that simulates the remainder of the season 10,000 times to predict team records and draft positions.
The FPI model primarily relies on team ratings and game locations to determine game probabilities. After simulating the season, the draft order is determined by each team’s projected record and their average draft position across all simulations. As of Week 7, the winless New York Jets are currently projected to have the first overall pick.
Top 10 Projections and Analysis
New York Jets (0-7): The Jets’ struggles continue, and the FPI gives them a 39.6% chance of securing the No. 1 pick and an 89.3% chance of landing a top-five selection. Their average draft position is 2.7, highlighting their high probability of drafting early.
Tennessee Titans (1-6): The Titans are projected to have the second overall pick, with a 21.6% chance of earning the top spot. Their average draft position is 3.4, and they have an 84.2% chance of a top-five pick.
Miami Dolphins (1-6): The Dolphins’ struggles have them projected to pick third. The FPI gives them a 14.0% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 69.4% chance at a top-five pick. Their average draft position is 4.6.
New Orleans Saints (1-6): The Saints’ disappointing season has them projected to pick fourth, nearly identical to the Dolphins in terms of FPI chance for the top pick (13.6%) and top-five pick (69.7%). Their average draft position is also 4.6.
Las Vegas Raiders (2-5): The Raiders are currently projected to pick fifth. Their chances of landing the No. 1 pick are lower at 3.7%, but they still have a significant 48.2% chance of a top-five pick. Their average draft position is 6.4.
Cleveland Browns (2-5): The Browns’ struggles position them for the sixth overall pick. Their FPI chance to earn the No. 1 pick is 5.1%, with a 46.3% chance of a top-five pick. Their average draft position is 6.7.
Arizona Cardinals (2-5): The Cardinals are projected to pick seventh. Their chances of landing the No. 1 pick are much lower at 0.8%, and their chance of a top-five pick is 21.6%. Their average draft position is 9.4.
New York Giants (2-5): The Giants are projected to pick eighth. Their FPI chance to earn the No. 1 pick is 0.6%, with a 15.4% chance of a top-five pick. Their average draft position is 10.6.
