You see Pat doing it, that sets the tempo’: How Chiefs became kings of fourth down

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – The Kansas City Chiefs’ dominant 31-0 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday wasn’t just a display of offensive firepower and defensive prowess; it was a testament to their calculated aggression on fourth down, a strategy that has transformed them into Super Bowl frontrunners. A pivotal moment that exemplified this shift occurred early in the game, presenting Head Coach Andy Reid with a critical decision.

Leading 7-0, the Chiefs faced a fourth-and-1 situation from their own 40-yard line just before the second quarter commenced. This scenario encapsulated Reid’s evolving philosophy of embracing offensive risk while maintaining a degree of prudence. "We try to stay aggressive in that area — and try to be relatively smart," Reid had stated previously, highlighting the crucial role of quarterback Patrick Mahomes in this decision-making process. "Patrick’s got a good feel on that, too, when he’s out there. We’ve got a lot of trust in him. Some of these things that we’re doing, he’s got options on — and he’s got to be spot on when we’re doing them."

The play that unfolded perfectly illustrated the synergy between Reid’s strategic vision and Mahomes’ on-field execution. The Chiefs lined up with Mahomes under center, flanked by a trio of players: tight end Noah Gray and running backs Kareem Hunt and rookie Brashard Smith. Gray initiated a short motion, attempting to bait the Raiders into an offsides penalty. Smith followed suit with a similar motion. When the Raiders remained disciplined, Mahomes shifted gears, transforming into an Oscar-worthy actor.

"F—, it never f—ing works, man!" Mahomes exclaimed, feigning frustration and throwing his hands up in a theatrical display designed to lull the Raiders into a false sense of security, making them believe a snap was not imminent.

The ruse worked flawlessly. Three seconds later, Mahomes took the snap, completely deceiving the Raiders and even catching veteran NFL analyst Tony Romo off guard. Mahomes handed the ball off to Hunt, who surged forward behind the blocking of Creed Humphrey and Mike Caliendo for a crucial 3-yard gain.

After the game, Mahomes was asked about the theatrics. He chuckled, attributing it to his State Farm commercials. "I’m joking. Nagy came up with the idea. We had talked about doing the hard count and trying to draw the [defense] offsides. I can’t remember who I watched do it a couple of years ago and they had said that. I said, ‘I’m going to use that as part of my acting,’ just to get the defense to relax a little bit."

He added, "But we’ve got to go get [the first down]. I thought the offensive line did a great job of driving off the ball and Kareem, in those situations, is money."

This fourth-down conversion was not an isolated incident. The Chiefs’ offense has become remarkably reliable in these high-pressure situations. With Mahomes at the helm, they have converted 12 of 14 fourth-down attempts this season (85.7%), the highest success rate among teams with at least 10 attempts.

These successful gambles have translated directly into points, with the Chiefs scoring on 39% of the possessions following a fourth-down conversion. According to TruMedia, these calculated risks have generated an NFL-leading decisionEPA (Expected Points Added) of 12.9, showcasing the significant advantage gained from these decisions compared to alternative choices.

This fourth-down prowess is a key factor in the Chiefs’ ascent to Super Bowl favorites, according to ESPN BET. Offensive coordinator Matt Nagy emphasized the importance of preparation and conviction. "Throughout the week, the coaches have done a good job of being able to really talk through the plays that we like in this moment, whether it’s a personnel we like versus what they do or whether it’s a concept or scheme that we like versus what they do," Nagy said. "Getting to that moment and not wasting time, and feeling the conviction of the [play] call and executing it, the players feel that."

Interestingly, even with Mahomes’ exceptional passing abilities, the Chiefs have opted for a designed run on eight of the 15 fourth-down attempts. This underscores the value of Kareem Hunt, a nine-year veteran known for his power and short-yardage expertise.

The only instance this season where Hunt failed to convert was in the Chiefs’ Week 2 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. In that play, Reid called for Humphrey to pull on a trap for Hunt. However, the Eagles’ defensive line overwhelmed the Chiefs’ offensive line, resulting in a 1-yard loss. The Eagles capitalized on the short field, taking a three-point lead with a Jake Elliott field goal, ultimately contributing to a 20-17 defeat.

"Kareem has got a real knack for that — and he’s got great vision," Reid said of Hunt’s success in short-yardage situations. "He’s always been good at that part. Having him back there is a great thing. He brings confidence to that group, which I appreciate."

Reid’s willingness to embrace fourth-down aggression marks a departure from his more traditional approach throughout his 27-year coaching career. This shift is driven by his confidence in Mahomes and, to some extent, by the early-season struggles of kicker Harrison Butker, who had missed multiple field goal attempts and extra points. Mahomes, now in his ninth season, has earned Reid’s increasing trust over time.

Mahomes has consistently validated that trust. In the season opener, facing fourth-and-7 near midfield with less than four minutes remaining, Mahomes evaded Chargers pass rusher Khalil Mack and delivered a 49-yard pass to Hollywood Brown.

The Chiefs were a perfect 4-of-4 on fourth-down plays in their victory over the Baltimore Ravens, including a 15-yard touchdown pass from Mahomes to Brown.

Against the Detroit Lions, another team known for its fourth-down aggressiveness, Reid faced a fourth-and-3 decision inside the red zone in the first quarter.

Prior to this game, since Mahomes became the starter in 2018, the Chiefs had faced a similar situation – fourth-and-3 or more inside the opponent’s 30-yard line – 86 times. In every instance, Reid opted for a field goal. However, against the Lions, Reid deviated from the norm, keeping Mahomes and the offense on the field. Mahomes rewarded the decision by completing a pass to Xavier Worthy for a 6-yard touchdown.

"He’s always going to make sure he’s doing what he can to get better," tight end Travis Kelce said of Mahomes. "That’s why I love playing with him. This team is going to keep getting better throughout the year because we all have that mentality. It’s one of those things where you see Pat doing it, that sets the tempo.

"It never blows me away how good that guy can be and how prepared he always is." The Chiefs’ transformation into fourth-down kings is a testament to the trust, preparation, and execution that defines their championship aspirations.