Regrading Eight NFL Trades from Last Year’s Deadline: Hindsight on Adams to the Jets, Cooper to the Bills
I’m a big believer in evaluating decision-making instantaneously, but looking back at past choices can also be a valuable exercise. At the 2024 NFL trade deadline, I graded the deals that were made based on expectations for the players involved, cap implications, and how the moves affected the outlooks of the trading teams. A year later, we have a lot more information. So let’s update our grades based on all we’ve learned. It’s a useful calibration exercise for future grades, too.
When I’m doing grades at the time of a deal, I focus on process and the range of outcomes for each team. These grades will be focused on results and consider how players have performed since the trade (and expectations for them going forward if they’re still with the team that traded for them). So before the 2025 trade deadline hits on Nov. 4, let’s take one more look at eight of the biggest 2024 trades – what we thought then and what we know now.
WR Davante Adams to the Jets
- New York Jets got: WR Davante Adams
- Las Vegas Raiders got: 2025 conditional third-round pick
- Trade date: Oct. 15
Original grade for the Jets: A-
New grade for the Jets: B+
Original grade for the Raiders: B-
New grade for the Raiders: B
At the time of the trade, the Jets were 2-4 and had fired head coach Robert Saleh. The hope was that a coaching change and the addition of Adams, who already had chemistry with Aaron Rodgers from their eight seasons together in Green Bay, would salvage a season that started with Super Bowl aspirations.
In my original grade, I wrote: "By far the most likely result of all of this is we end up looking back on this deal as a burned third-round pick by the Jets. But that’s not what this trade is about for them: They are playing for the upside, the less likely scenario where a few breaks go their way."
A year later, the Jets have little to show in exchange for that third-round pick; they managed just three wins after the deal. However, Adams’ numbers on the Jets were solid: 2.25 yards per route run, 77.6 yards per game, and a 30% target rate. He finished with an above-average 68 open score for the season, via ESPN’s receiver scores. Those figures are better than I would have expected at the time of the deal.
While the addition of Adams reduced Garrett Wilson’s target rate (it dropped from 27% without Adams on the field to 22%), Wilson’s yards per route run remained an identical 1.76 regardless of whether Adams was on the field.
Ultimately, the Jets’ 2024 failures were for reasons beyond Adams. As disappointing as the Jets’ season turned out, the trade was logical at the time and Adams performed reasonably well. Teams have gotten far less for a third-round pick in the trade market.
Adams was unlikely to remain on the contract he had at the time of the trade – it included $35.6 million in non-guaranteed money this season – so there was always the possibility of this trade being a short-term acquisition. That became a near-certainty once the Jets parted with Rodgers.
As for the Raiders, I said in the original grade that they deserved an F for the entire Adams saga – they held on to him for far too long and cost themselves dearly by doing so – but a B- for their decision-making on the day of the trade. I was critical of them not eating some of Adams’ salary in exchange for more draft compensation considering Las Vegas’ cap situation, and that critique is still valid.
But if the ultimate question is whether the Raiders should have made this trade, the answer was yes at the time and yes now. For that, they earn a B.
Seahawks trade LB Baker to Titans for LB Jones
- Seattle Seahawks got: LB Ernest Jones IV
- Tennessee Titans got: LB Jerome Baker, 2025 fourth-round pick
- Trade date: Oct. 23
Original grade for Seahawks: B-
New grade for Seahawks: B+
Original grade for Titans: A-
