NFC Dominating AFC in Nearly Unprecedented Fashion: Will It Hold Up, and Does It Matter?

The NFL landscape is witnessing a shift, a palpable imbalance of power between its two conferences. The NFC is currently flexing its muscle against the AFC in a manner reminiscent of the early days following the NFL-AFL merger. Is this dominance sustainable, and more importantly, does it hold any predictive weight for the ultimate prize – the Super Bowl?

Rewind to 1970: the year the NFL absorbed the AFL. Ten AFL teams, along with the NFL’s Colts, Browns, and Steelers, formed the AFC. The NFC comprised the remaining 13 pre-merger NFL teams. That inaugural year saw the NFC surge ahead, posting a 27-12-1 record in interconference play, translating to a .692 winning percentage. Although the Colts, an NFL holdover, secured the Super Bowl victory for the AFC, the NFC’s strength was undeniable.

Fast forward 55 years, and the echoes of 1970 resonate. Through Week 7 of the current season, the NFC boasts a 25-13 record against the AFC, a .658 winning percentage. This figure, if maintained, would mark the conference’s best interconference performance since that pivotal 1970 season. Week 7 provided a microcosm of this trend, with the NFC securing a 3-1 record against its AFC counterparts. The Broncos’ dramatic comeback win against the Giants offered a glimmer of hope for the AFC, but the overall picture remains tilted in favor of the NFC.

Why the Imbalance?

Several factors contribute to this perceived disparity. A primary driver is the presence of struggling teams within the AFC. The AFC houses the league’s basement dwellers. The Jets are winless, while the Titans and Dolphins are languishing with one win each. The Ravens, preseason Super Bowl contenders, have been a major disappointment. The Browns and Raiders are undergoing rebuilds, grappling with quarterback uncertainties.

Currently, the AFC would hold six of the top seven draft slots if the season ended today, according to Tankathon. These six teams have a combined 2-10 record against NFC opponents. It is worth noting that the AFC held six of the top seven draft slots last year, too.

Beyond these bottom-tier teams, the AFC also includes the Texans and Bengals, both underperforming relative to expectations. Even the Colts, a bright spot in the AFC, suffered their sole defeat against the NFC’s Rams.

Playoff Implications:

This imbalance has significant implications for the playoff picture. A snapshot of the current standings reveals a stark contrast: the NFC has 12 teams at .500 or better, compared to just eight in the AFC. While advanced analytics give some struggling AFC teams a higher chance of making the playoffs than some .500 NFC teams, a significant factor influencing playoff probabilities is the strength of the remaining schedule. Nine of the ten most difficult remaining schedules belong to NFC teams, making the path to the playoffs more challenging for NFC contenders.

Historical Perspective:

Conference power is cyclical. The AFC dominated the late 1970s, fueled by dynasties like the Steelers and the Raiders. The NFC then reigned supreme throughout the 1980s and much of the 1990s, winning 13 consecutive Super Bowls with powerhouses like the 49ers, Washington, Dallas, and New York. The 2000s saw the AFC resurgence, spearheaded by Tom Brady’s Patriots, Peyton Manning’s Colts, and Ben Roethlisberger’s Steelers. However, since 2000, interconference play has been relatively balanced. The current perception of NFC dominance is amplified by its recent strong performances.

Does Strength Equate to Championship?

Examining historical data reveals a potential correlation between interconference dominance and Super Bowl victories. The conference with the best interconference record in a given season often sees its representative hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. If this trend holds, teams like the Packers, 49ers, Eagles, Buccaneers, Lions, and Seahawks might be well-positioned for a Super Bowl run.

A Word of Caution:

While the NFC’s current strength is undeniable, it’s crucial to acknowledge that the season is far from over. Circumstances can change rapidly. A single week of strong AFC performances could significantly alter the interconference record.

Furthermore, several AFC teams are poised for improvement. The Ravens should benefit from a healthy Lamar Jackson. The Bengals are showing promise with Joe Flacco at quarterback. The Chiefs appear to be returning to form. The AFC may not have the dominant upper echelon initially anticipated, but those preseason favorites retain the potential to ignite a turnaround.

Ultimately, the NFC’s current dominance is a compelling storyline, but the NFL’s inherent unpredictability reminds us that nothing is set in stone. Whether this imbalance will persist and translate into Super Bowl glory for the NFC remains to be seen.

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