NFL Predictions: Can Anyone Overtake the Colts for the No. 1 Seed in the AFC?

The Indianapolis Colts, after an underwhelming 8-9 season last year that extended their playoff drought to four years, are surprisingly dominating the 2025 NFL season. They haven’t reached double-digit wins since 2014, haven’t won the AFC South since then, and haven’t secured the coveted No. 1 seed in the AFC since 2009. However, those dry spells might be nearing their end. The Colts currently boast the league’s best record after seven weeks, standing at an impressive 6-1. Their sole loss came in Week 4 against the Los Angeles Rams, a narrow 27-20 defeat where they relinquished a seven-point lead in the final four minutes.

A key factor in the Colts’ resurgence is the performance of quarterback Daniel Jones. After an intense training camp battle with Anthony Richardson, Jones secured the starting role and has revitalized his career in Indianapolis. The 28-year-old, once a highly touted draft pick by the New York Giants in 2019, struggled to find consistent success in New York. After five seasons, he requested his release in November of 2024 and spent the remainder of the season with the Minnesota Vikings before entering free agency.

Indianapolis took a chance on Jones, signing him to a one-year contract this past March. Head Coach Shane Steichen’s decision to name Jones the starter has proven to be a masterstroke. Jones is currently ranked second in the NFL in adjusted QBR (80.2) and fifth in both passing yards (1,790) and completion percentage (71.0%). His efficiency and leadership have been instrumental in the Colts’ success.

Another pivotal element of the Colts’ dominance is the continued excellence of running back Jonathan Taylor. The 26-year-old, a Wisconsin alum, led the league in rushing and rushing touchdowns in 2021. He’s on track to repeat that feat in 2025, currently leading the NFL with 697 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. Taylor has already recorded three 100-yard games and three games with three rushing touchdowns.

The Colts hold a comfortable two-game lead over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South. Their home form has been impeccable, with a 4-0 record at Lucas Oil Stadium. They are favored to maintain that streak in Week 8 against the struggling 1-6 Tennessee Titans. Following that game, they face a tougher stretch, traveling to Pittsburgh to face the AFC North-leading Steelers and then heading to Germany to play the Atlanta Falcons before their Week 11 bye.

Entering Week 8, the Colts are a game ahead of the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos for the No. 1 seed in the AFC and 1.5 games ahead of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills. Their schedule after the bye presents a significant challenge. It includes two divisional matchups against the Jaguars, road games against the Kansas City Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks, and a showdown with the San Francisco 49ers. They also face the Houston Texans twice, a team that, despite a disappointing 2-4 record, has won the AFC South title twice.

The Colts’ current position atop the NFL standings marks the first time they’ve held the league’s best record since their impressive 14-2 finish in 2009. They aim to become only the fourth team in the past 40 years to earn a No. 1 seed after enduring a four-year playoff drought. Despite the challenging schedule ahead, SportsLine’s "Inside the Lines" team and their projection model believe the Colts will achieve this feat.

The ITL model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, predicts that Indianapolis will surpass 12 wins for the first time since that memorable 2009 season. The model also suggests that the Colts will finish atop the AFC in a majority of its simulations.

According to the model, the Denver Broncos have the best chance of overtaking the Colts for the No. 1 seed, despite their loss to Indianapolis in Week 2. The Broncos, leading the AFC West, are riding a four-game winning streak fueled by a dramatic fourth-quarter comeback against the Giants. Half of their remaining ten games are against teams with .500 records or worse.

The Kansas City Chiefs are considered the second most likely team to challenge the Colts for the top seed. After a shaky start to the season, the Chiefs have won four of their last five games and also face five opponents with losing records in their remaining ten games.

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The model’s projections for Week 8 anticipate wins for the Broncos and Patriots against the Dallas Cowboys and Cleveland Browns, respectively, extending their winning streaks to five games and improving their records to 6-2. The Chiefs are also projected to defeat the Washington Commanders, securing their third consecutive victory. However, the model strongly favors the Colts to defeat the Titans, maintaining their lead in the conference.

Indianapolis is a significant 14-point favorite against Tennessee, who are coming off a 31-13 loss to New England. Four of the Titans’ last five losses have been by 14 or more points, including a 41-20 defeat against the Colts in Week 3. Four of the Colts’ six wins have been by at least 14 points.

The model predicts that Indianapolis will complete its third consecutive season sweep of Tennessee in 88% of its simulations. The projected score is a 36-17 victory for the Colts, who haven’t lost to the Titans since a 19-10 defeat in Week 7 of the 2022 season.

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