First Bets for Week 8: Revenge for Rodgers, a Giants Rebound, Plus an MVP Pick
Week 8 of the NFL season kicks off with a compelling Thursday Night Football matchup featuring the Minnesota Vikings visiting the Los Angeles Chargers, a clash of teams that both made playoff appearances last year. As the week progresses, fans can look forward to a packed Sunday schedule featuring 10 afternoon games. The Sunday Night Football spotlight will be on Aaron Rodgers and his Pittsburgh Steelers as they host the Green Bay Packers, Rodgers’ former team where he achieved Super Bowl glory and cemented his Hall of Fame-worthy career. The week concludes with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Washington Commanders and the Kansas City Chiefs.
This week brings bye weeks for six teams: the Detroit Lions, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Rams, Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, and Jacksonville Jaguars, meaning these teams will be taking a break and strategizing for the remainder of the season.
To get an early edge on Week 8, a panel of ESPN experts – Matt Bowen, Eric Karabell, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody, and Seth Walder – have analyzed the opening odds and pinpointed the bets they believe offer the most value before the lines potentially shift later in the week.
Please note that the odds mentioned were accurate at the time of publication and are courtesy of ESPN BET Sportsbook.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Cover -5.5 (-120) at New Orleans Saints
Matt Bowen is backing the Buccaneers to cover the -5.5 spread against the Saints. He highlights the impressive performance of Baker Mayfield this season but emphasizes the strength of the Tampa Bay defense. Bowen anticipates the Buccaneers’ defense, known for its blitz packages and ability to disrupt opposing quarterbacks, will put significant pressure on Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler. He points to Rattler’s three-interception game against the Chicago Bears in Week 7 as evidence of his vulnerability under pressure. Bowen believes Todd Bowles’ defensive unit will force Rattler into uncomfortable situations, leading to mistakes and ultimately allowing the Buccaneers to cover the spread on the road.
Pittsburgh Steelers to Cover +3.5 (-125) vs. Green Bay Packers
Eric Karabell is leaning towards the Steelers covering the +3.5 spread against the Packers, driven by the narrative of Aaron Rodgers facing his former team. Karabell believes Rodgers will be motivated by revenge and highlights his solid performance for the Steelers, arguing that he has played at least as well as Jordan Love this season. He also notes that the Packers have not been dominant, struggling to secure victories against teams like the Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals. Karabell suggests the Packers might win by a narrow margin, but he sees the Steelers getting points at home as a valuable opportunity and a potential mistake by the oddsmakers.
New York Giants to Cover +6.5 (Even) at Philadelphia Eagles
Pamela Maldonado is confident in the Giants covering the +6.5 spread against the Eagles. She notes that with Jaxson Dart at quarterback, the Giants have transitioned into a balanced, ball-control team that effectively runs the ball and remains competitive in every game. Maldonado points out that the Eagles’ defense is allowing a high 4.6 yards per carry and struggling on third downs, making them susceptible to sustained drives. She believes Dart’s mobility, combined with Cam Skattebo’s physicality, will help the Giants stay within the number. Maldonado emphasizes that the Eagles are winning with precision rather than explosiveness, which limits their margin for error. In a divisional matchup expected to be a tough, grinding game, she expects the Giants to cover.
Steelers Money Line (+150) vs. Packers
Eric Moody is backing the Steelers to win outright against the Packers. He emphasizes the revenge factor of Rodgers facing his former team and believes it will be a significant motivator. Moody also notes that the Steelers are coming off a mini-bye after playing on Thursday night, giving them extra time to prepare. He expects T.J. Watt and the Steelers’ defense to rebound from their Week 7 performance and put pressure on the Packers’ offense. Moody believes the Steelers’ defense will be a key factor in securing a victory.
Dak Prescott to Win MVP (25-1)
Seth Walder is making a bold prediction, selecting Dak Prescott as a potential MVP winner at 25-1 odds. He highlights Prescott’s league-leading QBR following a dominant performance against the Washington Commanders. Walder notes that Prescott has a proven track record of excellence, pointing to his second-place finish in QBR in 2023. He acknowledges that the MVP award is often driven by narrative and that the Cowboys will likely need to make the playoffs for Prescott to be a serious contender. However, he believes that if the Cowboys reach the postseason, Prescott will have a compelling storyline in his favor. Walder suggests that the Cowboys’ decision to trade away an elite defensive player, coupled with the defense’s struggles, will highlight Prescott’s exceptional play as the primary reason for their success, potentially leading to MVP recognition. The weak defense also means Prescott will have ample opportunities to put up impressive statistics, further bolstering his MVP case.
