Four September Takes That Went Cold in October: Why We Were Wrong on the Chiefs, Colts, Jaguars, Bills

The NFL is a league of constant change, where early-season assumptions often crumble as the weeks progress. What seemed certain in September can quickly become outdated by October. Let’s revisit four prominent takes from the first month of the 2025 season and examine how recent performances have challenged those initial perceptions.

Kansas City Chiefs

• September Take: "This offense is broken."

The Chiefs stumbled out of the gate with an 0-2 start, struggling to find offensive consistency. Patrick Mahomes seemed reliant on improvisation, and the unit lacked its usual explosiveness. The return of Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice was anticipated to provide a boost, but doubts lingered about whether the Chiefs could replicate their offensive prowess of previous years.

However, since Week 4, the Chiefs have transformed into one of the league’s most potent offenses. They rank fourth in EPA per play overall, rising to first when considering only meaningful game situations. Their points per drive have surged to second-best in the league. With Rice back in the lineup after a long absence, the Chiefs finally unleashed their intended starting offense. The result was a dominant performance against the Raiders, with Mahomes leading the charge.

The key changes have been improved receiver play and better pass protection. The Chiefs’ pass catchers are now securing a higher percentage of Mahomes’ passes, and the offensive line has limited quick pressures, allowing Mahomes time to operate. Mahomes’ ability to identify open pockets and create explosive plays remains a significant factor.

Jacksonville Jaguars

• September Take: "The defense can hold up a sloppy offense."

Despite a promising 4-1 start, the Jaguars’ offense struggled with consistency and unforced errors. Procedural penalties plagued the team, and Trevor Lawrence battled turnovers and drops. The defense compensated by generating takeaways, providing the offense with short fields.

However, in recent weeks, the defense’s turnover production has waned, exposing the offense’s limitations. The Jaguars have failed to force any turnovers in their last two losses, placing pressure on the offense to sustain long, successful drives. The procedural penalties continue to be a problem, hindering the team’s ability to maintain momentum. Drops remain a concern, with Brian Thomas Jr. struggling to secure contested catches.

The Jaguars’ offense lacks the consistency and discipline to consistently win games, especially when the defense isn’t generating turnovers. Unless they clean up their mistakes, the Jaguars will struggle to maintain their early-season success.

Buffalo Bills

• September Take: "They have a clear path to the top seed in the AFC."

After a dramatic Week 1 victory over the Ravens, the Bills appeared poised to dominate the AFC. With a favorable early-season schedule, many predicted an undefeated start.

However, recent losses to the Patriots and Falcons have derailed those expectations. The Bills’ offense has become turnover-prone, and the defense has struggled to generate takeaways. The Bills’ success has been tied to their ability to avoid turnovers, a trend that has reversed in recent weeks. Allen has also taken more sacks, disrupting the team’s offensive rhythm.

The Bills’ defense has also regressed, struggling to pressure opposing quarterbacks and create turnovers. Injuries and inconsistent play in the secondary have contributed to the defense’s struggles. The Bills must rediscover their identity and address their issues on both sides of the ball to regain their status as AFC contenders.

Indianapolis Colts

• September Take: "The Daniel Jones-led offense is a flash in the pan."

After a dominant win against the Chargers, it’s hard to deny the Colts’ offensive prowess. They lead the league in points per possession and EPA per play. Jones is excelling in Shane Steichen’s system, and the Colts’ playmakers are thriving.

The Colts’ success is no longer solely attributable to an easy schedule. They have consistently performed well against both tough and weak opponents. Jones is averaging a career-high in air yards per throw, and Steichen’s play-action scheme has unlocked his potential.

The Colts’ offensive line has provided excellent protection, allowing Jones to avoid sacks and make plays. The team’s running game, led by Jonathan Taylor, has been dominant, creating opportunities in the passing game. The Colts are a legitimate offensive powerhouse and a force to be reckoned with in the AFC.