Mac Jones Now Looks Like the Best QB from the 2021 Draft Class
Mac Jones is emerging as the top quarterback from the underwhelming 2021 NFL Draft class. While it might be akin to being the smartest student in a class of underachievers, it’s a narrative few would have predicted, especially after Jones’ rocky tenure in New England, which some attribute to coaching missteps rather than his own shortcomings.
The argument for Jones’ ascendancy hinges both on his recent performance and the struggles of his draft counterparts. The 2021 draft boasted five first-round quarterbacks, along with second-rounder Kyle Trask (No. 32 overall) and later-round selections like Ian Book and Kellen Mond. However, CBS Sports’ Ryan Wilson recently conducted a redraft of the 2021 class and only Trevor Lawrence remained in the first round. The overall performance of the class has been disappointing, leading to the possibility that Jones might be the only one deserving of a first-round selection based on current trajectories.
Justin Fields was recently benched by the Jets, who are mired in an 0-7 start. Lawrence continues to exhibit inconsistency, struggling to string together consecutive strong performances. Zach Wilson and Trey Lance have been relegated to backup roles, seemingly missing out on the recent trend of "transfer portal QBs" thriving in the NFL.
Meanwhile, Jones has guided the 49ers to a 5-2 record (4-1 in his starts) despite the team grappling with a significant number of injuries. He has demonstrated solid, albeit not spectacular, play while battling through knee and oblique injuries, a situation that arose years after the 49ers considered drafting him.
Contextualizing Jones’ struggles in New England is crucial, as the team’s overall performance faltered. CBS Sports analyst Damien Harris, a former Patriots running back, attributed Jones’ decline to the departure of an offensive coordinator who had previously coached him to a Pro Bowl appearance. Harris argued that the subsequent appointment of defensive-minded coaches to oversee Jones’ development ultimately undermined his progress.
The benefit of hindsight allows for a reassessment of Jones’ time in New England. He is no longer viewed as a punchline, and it’s possible that he has matured and developed as a player. With the struggles of his fellow draftees and Lawrence’s inconsistent play, the data suggests that Jones might have been the quarterbacking gem of the 2021 class, even if the bar wasn’t set particularly high.
The 2021 class has produced only three average seasons by quarterbacks, with Jones accounting for two of them. This season, Jones ranks fourth among qualified quarterbacks in success rate and 13th in EPA per dropback. This would mark the second average-to-above-average season of his career, including his rookie year when he led the Patriots to the playoffs (16th in EPA per dropback). Notably, he is the only first-round quarterback from the 2021 draft who can make that claim.
The five first-round quarterbacks from the 2021 draft class have collectively produced a string of underwhelming seasons. Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, and Jones have played for a combined 13 teams, reflecting their struggles. They have accumulated 18 qualified seasons, with Jones accounting for two of the three instances where a quarterback ranked inside the top 20 in EPA per dropback. The other instance is Lawrence’s 2022 season.
Justin Fields has made dubious history through his first 50 career starts. Despite rushing for over 1,000 yards in his second season, he finished 22nd in EPA per dropback, burdened by excessive sacks (NFL-high 55) and turnovers (13). His career record of 14-36 is tied for the worst since 1970 through 50 career starts. Furthermore, he has endured the most sacks (171) by any quarterback in their first 50 starts since David Carr in the early-to-mid 2000s.
Among 30 quarterbacks with 1,000 pass attempts since 2021, Fields ranks 28th in EPA per dropback. He has the highest sack rate, highest pressure rate, longest average time to throw, and is 28th in off-target rate. Despite his athleticism and arm strength, he has struggled to harness his potential, often exhibiting a wild arm and holding onto the ball for too long.
Trevor Lawrence’s lone average season was more like half a year. He finished sixth in EPA per dropback in 2022 when the Jaguars won seven of their last nine games to make the playoffs. However, that constitutes the only significant stretch of success in his career. He ranked third in the NFL in EPA per dropback during that nine-game stretch (0.19). In the remaining 58 starts, he ranks 32nd out of 39 qualifiers in that category (-0.04).
While Urban Meyer’s tenure didn’t help in his rookie year, turnovers have been Lawrence’s undoing. He ranks 26th out of 30 quarterbacks in turnover rate since 2021 (minimum 1,000 attempts).
Remarkably, Lawrence and Jones have nearly identical career numbers. Lawrence has a career record of 26-41, while Jones stands at 24-30. Their completion percentages are similar (63% for Lawrence, 66% for Jones), as are their yards per attempt (6.7 for Lawrence, 6.8 for Jones). Their touchdown-to-interception ratios are also comparable (1.5 for Lawrence, 1.3 for Jones), as is their EPA per dropback (-0.01 for Lawrence, -0.04 for Jones).
When both were in Jacksonville last season, Jones had a slight edge in completion percentage and EPA per dropback in seven starts. Given their similar career production and Jones’ current upward trajectory, he arguably holds the upper hand in the debate of who is the best quarterback from the 2021 draft class.
Jones’ revitalization can be attributed to his ability to get rid of the ball quickly and accurately, placing it in the hands of playmakers like Christian McCaffrey. He boasts the sixth-fastest average time to throw this year and the second-lowest off-target rate.
Jones ranks fourth among qualified passers in success rate this season. He may not be delivering highlight-reel plays, but he is consistently moving the chains. The 49ers rank second in third-down conversion rate this year and have the second-shortest average distance to gain on third down.
Jones has relied heavily on McCaffrey to sustain drives, utilizing him as a versatile weapon across the field. Thirty percent of Jones’ pass attempts are directed to running backs this season, the highest rate by any quarterback since Alex Smith in 2020. McCaffrey has been on the receiving end of seven of Jones’ 22 conversions on third down this season. Overall, McCaffrey has 18 conversions on third down in 2025, the most by a running back through seven games since Deuce McAllister in 2003.
Jones’ reliance on McCaffrey stems partly from the absence of other key receiving options. Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, and Jauan Jennings have collectively missed 17 games this season. The most common five-player skill player combination with Jones this year has been McCaffrey, Jake Tonges, DeMarcus Robinson, Kendrick Bourne, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. That group has played 30 snaps together, indicating a lack of consistent continuity.
This situation contrasts sharply with 2023 when Brock Purdy had the consistent luxury of throwing to Aiyuk, McCaffrey, Kittle, and Deebo Samuel. Jones led the 49ers on a game-winning drive vs. the Cardinals, and four of his five completions on the drive were to Tonges, Bourne and Skyy Moore.
He is achieving more with less, as the 49ers have close to $100 million in player salary on one reserve list or another, by far the most in football.
Jones’ journey is a testament to the fact that the path to success is not always linear. His story is still unfolding, and it promises to be a compelling storyline in the second half of the NFL season, particularly with Purdy nearing a return from turf toe.
While Purdy is unlikely to be replaced, Jones has proven his capability as a starter if Purdy’s injury persists. He is poised to be a Week 1 starter for someone in the 2026 season, placing him in an exclusive category among his draft class.
